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Key Takeaways
- Importance of Crime Rates vs. Crime Counts: Crime rates, which account for population differences, provide a more accurate representation of crime risk compared to raw crime counts.
- Precise Crime Rate Calculation: Accurate crime risk assessment by location requires both a correct numerator (crime counts) and an accurate denominator (area population).
- Impact of Floating Populations: In areas with significant non-residential populations, such as downtowns or tourist spots, relying on residential data alone leads to distorted crime rates. The crime rate must capture the full "floating population" to reflect true risk levels.
- Tourism and Crime Rates: High tourist traffic, as seen in France, complicates crime rate calculations. Effective measurement considers tourism's impact, adjusting for the increased population's vulnerability to crime.
- Comprehensive Data Utilization by Pinkerton: To enhance accuracy, the Pinkerton Crime Index incorporates diverse data on commuting patterns, tourism, and local activity levels for a realistic depiction of risk, aiding in informed decision-making for businesses and security.
In the world of criminology, there is a statistical relationship between the volume of crime and population. But these numbers alone give us an incomplete picture. When assessing crime risk across geographies, it is important to consider crime rates as opposed to crime counts.
Measures of crime rates vs. crime counts
Crime counts reflect the raw number of recorded offenses. These counts can be misleading when used for comparison. For instance, suppose place A and place B both have had 100 assaults over the last month. Additionally, suppose place A has a population of 500 people and place B has a population of 1,000 people. Using crime counts alone provides a misleading understanding of both areas’ crime risk. The two areas have had an identical number of assaults, but the second area has twice as many people. Thus, the probability of being victimized in place A is twice as high as in place B.
Crime rates, instead, account for the differences in populations. A crime rate is defined as the count of offenses divided by the number of people in the area and can be interpreted as crimes per person. This results in a more meaningful metric for comparing crime risk across space.
The Crime Rate Numerator and Denominator
An accurate characterization of a crime rate requires both a correct numerator (the count of crimes) and an accurate denominator (area population). The Pinkerton Crime Index utilizes many different sources and procedures for constructing the most accurate counts of crime in space (for instance, see how our team approaches the problem of crime underreporting in Mexico.)
In addition to making corrections and adjustments to the numerator (crime counts), determining a realistic denominator (area population), similarly requires additional work. Measures of population typically reflect residential population. However, this fails to capture movements of persons across space (both people coming into areas and traveling out of areas).
Many downtown or commercial spaces have a high number of businesses or attractions but a relatively low number of residents. Relying solely on a residential population to exact an area’s crime rate can produce a gross misrepresentation of risk.
Understanding France's Tourist and Commute Dynamics
This phenomenon is particularly acute in France, where an estimated 40 million people commute across districts daily. In Paris, approximately 1.2 million people commute into the city for work, a number equal to 55% of Paris’ residential population.
The plot below demonstrates worker in-flows and out-flows by Department (a French level of municipality comparable to an American county).
Tourist areas, museums, government buildings, and university campuses are all examples of places where official census population numbers fail to capture the full share of people utilizing the space. Failure to account for this additional “floating population” yields a crime rate that is an inaccurate depiction of crime risk, because the denominator reflects only the residential population and not the actual number of people potentially being impacted by crime in the area.
Importantly, the number of crimes that occur is strongly correlated to the number of people utilizing the space. If population is undercounted, you will observe higher than expected crime counts being divided by lower than expected population estimates, resulting in an extremely high crime rate. Getting the denominator correct is extremely important to produce accurate crime rates and make meaningful comparisons.
In France, tourism is another major contributor to the sensitivity of these measurements. France consistently ranks as the world's most popular tourist destination. In 2024, 100 million tourists travelled to France. Tourists not only visit Paris but also visit popular resort cities in the south of France, like Cannes and Nice and mountain towns like Chamonix-Mont-Blanc and Chambery. Population influxes to these locales vary throughout the year, with nationwide travel peaking in the summer months but occurring year-round. Critically, tourists make appealing targets to motivated offenders, and large tourist attractions complicate the balance of routine activities theory, a criminological framework that understands crime occurs when a motivated offender finds a suitable offender and a lack of capable guardianship.
The map below shows French Departments that experience significant influxes of tourism.
To account for this, Pinkerton data scientists quantify factors that proxy for additional people in an area. This information includes commuting behavior, tourism, as well as the number of hotels and their vacancy levels, restaurants, and entertainment venues. This additional information is used to either inflate or deflate estimates of population, yielding a crime rate that more meaningfully reflects the amount of people who live, work, and utilize a space.
Pinkerton Crime Index: Reliable Crime Risk Scores
This work is another instrumental step in producing reliable, meaningful risk insights accessible at your fingertips via the Pinkerton Crime Index. Possessing a realistic understanding of risk on a highly local level facilitates important business and guardianship decisions. Click here for more information on how the Pinkerton Crime Index can help your business.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How does population size affect crime rates?
Crime rates divide crime counts by the number of people in an area (crimes per person). When two places have the same number of crimes but different populations, the smaller population has a higher probability of victimization—so using the correct numerator (crime counts) and denominator (area population) is essential.
2. What is the impact of commuters on urban crime rates?
Commuters increase the true “floating population,” and relying only on residential population inflates crime rates. In France, an estimated 40 million people commute across districts daily; in Paris, about 1.2 million commute in (≈55% of the city’s residential population), so rates must account for these daily inflows.
3. How do you measure crime risk in tourist destinations?
Tourist destinations require adjusting the population denominator to include non-residents. Pinkerton uses proxies such as tourism volumes, hotel counts, and vacancy levels, restaurants, entertainment venues, and local activity to reflect the full number of people at risk and avoid overstating crime rates.
4. How is the crime index calculated in France?
The Pinkerton Crime Index combines corrected crime counts with an adjusted population denominator that accounts for commuting patterns, tourism, and activity levels by department and city—inflating or deflating population estimates as needed to produce realistic, local-level risk scores.
5. What is tourism-driven crime risk in France?
As the world’s most visited destination (100 million tourists in 2024), France sees seasonal surges in places like Paris, Nice, Cannes, Chamonix-Mont-Blanc, and Chambéry. Tourists increase exposure to motivated offenders, so Pinkerton adjusts crime rates for these influxes to reflect true risk.
Blog updated: February 9, 2026
