Crime in the Post-COVID-19 Era

Across the United States, crime and perceptions of crime have received new emphasis in media and election cycles. There is a broad public perception that the story of American crime is at another inflection point. 

Recent Gallup polls have found Americans’ perception of crime reached record highs since they began polling on crime severity in the year 2000. Sixty-three percent of Americans polled describe the nationwide crime situation as extremely serious or very serious. Seventeen percent of Americans polled described their local crime situation as extremely serious or very serious as well, also setting records. 

A majority of poll respondents, some 77%, said that U.S. crime increased from 2022 to 2023. Fifty-five percent of respondents said that local crime in their area had also increased over the last year.

Did COVID-19 alter crime in America?

The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, associated lockdowns, and social unrest were a singular moment for crime. Changes in the ways we lived, worked, and socialized produced large shifts in guardianship. Many of these transformations left tangible effects through the subsequent post-lockdown years.

As more voters become concerned with crime locally and nationally, it raises the question, how much did the COVID-19 moment alter the trajectory of American crime?

On the national scale, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Uniform Crime Reporting data, property crimes have maintained a decade-long downward trajectory. Violent crime, which reached a historic low in 2014, experienced a spike in 2020 but has since returned to pre-pandemic levels. A survey of some of America’s most populous counties containing large urban hubs reveals a multitude of individual trajectories, some of which hue closely to the national averages while others deviate significantly. 

The plots below show the moving crime risk of America’s most populous counties from January 2019 through December 2023. The red vertical line on March 1, 2020, marks the beginning of “the COVID moment” and has been normalized to 0%. 

New York County, New York (New York City) 

Notably, New York County, comprising New York City, experienced an increase in crimes against property and people. Property crime experienced a slight decrease during the 2020 pandemic with an increase in violent crime, but the post-COVID-19 years have seen a steady increase in crimes against persons and property.

New York Police Department (NYPD) statistics, as reported to the FBI, show increases in most individual crime types, with a particularly steep increase in motor vehicle theft. 

Los Angeles County, California (Los Angeles) 

Despite extensive media reporting and a widespread impression of worsening crime, both violent and property crime in Los Angeles County experienced a downward trajectory that began before the pandemic. This trajectory has been maintained through and after the pandemic. 

Despite the overall downward trend, rates of some individual offenses, including homicide and motor vehicle theft increased during the pandemic and have not receded to pre-pandemic levels, perhaps explaining some of the discrepancies between broad public sentiment and official data. 

Cook County, Illinois (Chicago) 

Cook County, where the city of Chicago is located, experienced a slight increase in violent crime. The COVID-19 effect caused a stark drop in property crime that lasted through 2022, but in 2023 property crime levels have reapproached pre-pandemic levels. 

Crime has been a factor of major concern to Chicagoans and figured heavily in issues surrounding the 2023 mayoral race, with early 2023 polls ranking crime as a top priority issue for many. Sixty-three percent of respondents reported they did not feel safe. 

Chicago Police statistics, as reported to the FBI, demonstrate this volatility. Homicide statistics in 2020 report a 10-year high, 2021 homicide statistics a 10-year low, with 2022 homicide statistics landing at a midpoint and reporting similar to numbers in 2017 and 2018. Other violent crimes, such as aggravated assault are reported to have a lower incidence than they did in pre-pandemic years. Larceny and motor vehicle theft have both shown steep increases in post-pandemic years. 

Fulton County, Georgia (Atlanta)

Fulton County, the location of Atlanta, Georgia, has seen a decline in crime scores across the board, with violent crime beginning to return to pre-pandemic levels while property crime types remain significantly lower. 

In terms of individual crime types, the Atlanta Police Department’s data, as reported to the FBI, shows an increase in homicides beyond pre-pandemic levels for 2021 and 2022. Aggravated assault returned to pre-pandemic levels, but all individual property crime types remained lower than in the years leading to the pandemic. 

Dallas County, Texas (Dallas)

Harris County, Texas (Houston) 

Maricopa County, Arizona (Phoenix) 

Miami-Dade County, Florida (Miami) 

Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania (Philadelphia) 

The narrative of American crime is not one singular story but myriad pathways and trajectories as individual city populations contend with development, challenges, and singular historic moments. 

A look at national crime numbers shows total violent crime returned to levels of the years directly preceding the pandemic. According to the FBI’s UCR data, the violent crime rate per 100,000 people was 380.8 in 2019 and 380.7 in 2022. And Property crime maintains a 20-year downward trajectory. In 2002 the FBI UCR property crime rate per 100,000 people was 3,630.6, and in 2022 it was 1,954.4. 

The national rate of individual offenses is more complex. The national homicide rate increased in the years since 2020, reaching levels not seen since the 1990s.  

• Robbery maintained a national downward trajectory. 
• Aggravated assault increased to levels seen in the late 2000s.
• Individual property crime types are all lower than they were a decade ago, except for motor vehicle theft, which has increased since 2020.

The Pinkerton Crime Index provides salient up-to-date crime data to help your team make decisions, drilling down to the neighborhood level and reading and anticipating crime trends into the near future. Every community faces its own unique story of crime risk, and Pinkerton’s expertise allows our partners to see through the noise and understand the local realities of crime, facilitating informed decision-making when it comes to choosing locations, allocating resources, and maintaining a strong duty of care. 

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