Crime cannot be predicted, but it can be anticipated. Data analysis reveals trends, patterns, and conditions, which in turn reveal vulnerabilities and increased likelihood of victimization. A realistic understanding of the risks associated with specific locations can facilitate intelligent allocation of resources and can mitigate risks proactively instead of reactively.
General public opinion on crime oscillates significantly due to media coverage and the sentiments of public figures, such as politicians, public intellectuals, and celebrities. Crime waves in one region or type of community can create a sense that crime has significantly changed nationwide. Remarkable increases in certain types of crime (recently homicide and motor vehicle theft) frequently leave the public with the impression that they are in more danger of being victimized by any type of crime, regardless of the specific traits of the communities they live and work in.
An accurate understanding of the local-area crime trends can help organizations make prudent security decisions. Maintaining a strong physical security posture can lower neighborhood-level crime, dissuading criminals during target selection.
What does crime data tell us?
Official government data on crime comes from two sources: the Federal Bureau of Investigations Uniform Crime Reporting Program (FBI UCR), which collates data from law enforcement agencies across the nation, and the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Criminal Victimization Survey (NCVS), which annually surveys a random sample of households to determine if they have been victimized by crime. Both measurements are imperfect representations of crime. They report the past, but they do not necessarily help to understand what is happening today or next week or next month.
These national crime statistics programs serve as indicators to policymakers, law enforcement, and security and risk management asking, “How is crime changing? Where does last year’s crime information fit into larger year-over-year trends?”
We have an answer. The Pinkerton Crime Index draws from these national crime indicators and uses additional inputs, real-world insights, and cutting-edge machine learning to build a better crime score.
Understanding risk through routine activity theory and physical security posture
A major lens through which we understand crime is routine activity theory, which understands crime as the confluence of a suitable target, a motivated offender, and a lack of capable guardianship. Each of these three dimensions has an impact on the other two. An especially motivated offender’s calculation of risk/reward can cause them to see more or less suitable targets or expand their search area to look for new opportunities. Likewise, an increase in meaningful guardianship can make a target less suitable and demotivate potential offenders.
An organization’s physical security posture can help deflect criminal incursions by lowering target suitability or increasing capable guardianship. Fundamental tenets of strong physical security can dissuade bad actors and create several layers of safety for employees and assets.
Access Control is a conscientious process that ensures only authorized individuals are in a space. There are varying degrees of access control — from simply denying public access to workspaces to layered security access for credentialed individuals — to determine who belongs in specific areas of a facility. Regulated access control can deter theft, violence, and corporate espionage. Lax access control can be undermined by social engineering, or bad actors posing as interviewees, maintenance, or delivery people.
Physical barriers and defensible spaces are another aspect of physical security posture that can help to affirm local security and introduce a more informal sense of guardianship that supports access control. Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED), a multidisciplinary field combining facets of architecture, environment, and behavioral psychology, stresses how architecture and design can intentionally reinforce security protocols.
Two examples of CPTED via the built environment are natural surveillance and territorial reinforcement. Natural surveillance emphasizes clear lines of sight. In addition to design and thorough lighting, landscaping discourages hiding spaces. Territorial reinforcement uses fences, walls, or additional features to delineate the boundaries of public and private spaces.
Closed-circuit television camera (CCTV) surveillance strengthens security posture as a strong deterrent effect and strengthens investigations where crimes have occurred. Strategically placed cameras can substitute a physical security presence such as guardianship and deter offenders on the prowl.
Pinkerton is here to help its partners proactively build strong security postures
Pinkerton’s portfolio of products and services is critically adept at helping firms and communities respond to crisis. But we are even better at applying a critical situational eye to an organization’s security ecosystem before things go wrong.
The Pinkerton Crime Index (PCI) is the real-world application of how data science informs and improves security postures.
The Pinkerton Crime Index uses cutting-edge data science and machine learning technologies to produce meaningful crime scores drawing from these national crime indicators and further edified by local law enforcement statistics, additional statistical inputs, and the real-world expertise of law enforcement and risk professionals. PCI allows firms to drill down into the story of crime in their city and see risk at the neighborhood level.
PCI issues a risk score based on national average crime risk, which reads as 1x. This means that an area with a risk score of 2x faces twice the national average of crime risk. Every neighborhood receives a total risk score built from individual property crime and violent crime risk scores.
Heat maps provide information on what days and hours of the week increase risk for different crime types. Time series show whether crime risk is trending up or down in any community as well as highlighting the seasonal variation of crime types on a county and state level. These insights are available in reports and as a dynamic dashboard map that allows area-to-area comparison.
PCI helps firms understand the true picture of crime in their community, city, county, state, and across the country. Don’t be dependent on paradoxical media presentations or political agendas depicting nationwide shifts. Scout locations, anticipate challenges, and fortify operations using intelligently designed data-driven risk insights checked against Pinkerton’s 170+ years of security and risk management expertise.
Pinkerton. We Never Sleep.
