Marked Increases in Retail Theft and Auto Theft in Australia

The Australian state of Victoria has seen a property crime surge, producing a 15% increase in the overall crime rate. Police said that the first quarter of 2025 yielded 208 arrests per day, the third consecutive quarter of record-setting arrests since establishing electronic records in 1993. Victoria police release annual data with a modified calendar beginning in April and ending in March each year. 

The annual publication of Vitoria crime statistics and data for 2025 shows that theft offenses have increased steeply in the last year, particularly theft from retail stores and thefts involving motor vehicles. Theft offenses have increased by 32% and motor vehicle thefts increased by 47% to the highest levels recorded since 2002, theft from within motor vehicles and theft of number plates also increased sharply, by 39% and 49% respectively. 

Motor Vehicle Theft in Australia 2025

Across the state, many Local Government Areas (LGAs) saw rapid increases in motor vehicle theft, both in urban high population areas and smaller communities. Melbourne reported a 47% increase in motor vehicle theft, and Hume reported an increase of 56%. The increase was even steeper in smaller communities that generally experience lower crime. Whitehorse reported an 86% increase, and Hobson’s Bay reported a 77% increase.  

The figure below shows the precipitous rise of motor vehicle theft in the state of Victoria, each bar captures a year of data from April to March. 

New South Wales reported similar, though less dramatic increases in the last few years. Both states experienced a COVID-era dip in motor vehicle theft, which has rebounded and produced 10-year highs. On the chart below, each bar captures a year of data from April to March. 

Police partially attributed the rise of motor vehicle theft to new technologies facilitating theft, particularly electronic devices that can be programmed to mimic keys. Holden Commodores manufactured between 2013 and 2017 have seen a theft surge of over 92% from January 2024 to 2025. Several models of Toyotas and Subarus are also susceptible, and thefts for both makers have increased by 76% and 107% respectively. 

These thefts utilize a relatively simple and widely available electronic device that can hijack the signal from key fobs for cars that feature keyless entry. Victoria police have estimated that 20% of stolen cars in the state have been taken using this technology. 

Youth Crime Trends in Australia 

Police in both states have witnessed surges in youth offending. While still only 13% of total offenses, youths in the state of Victoria were overrepresented in robberies, aggravated burglaries, and auto theft.  

Police data from New South Wales observed an 11.2% increase in the 10-year trend of motor vehicle theft offenders under 18, compared with a 5.6% increase in adult offenders. The chart below shows the rise in motor vehicle theft in both adult and underage offending populations over the last decade. 

Crime Risk Insights Australia by Pinkerton 

The Pinkerton Crime Index Australia provides monthly updated insights into crime risk on the neighborhood level, including a transparent breakdown of the offences and severity weighting associated with producing property crime risk, violent crime risk, and total risk scores. PCI Australia is a unique value proposition, providing risk data that covers 99.5% of Australia’s population. Data scientists reconcile differing data publication schedules, units of measurement, and varying crime definitions to facilitate salient within-country comparisons. It also provides time series, peer rankings, and insights into crime seasonality; offering an abundance of ways for security professionals and decision makers to assess and understand risk on a local level.