Recidivism and Job Opportunities

This blog is a part of our series, “Perspectives in Crime” where we explore leading academic studies that touch on crime data.

As compared to developed nations across the world, recently released prisoners in the United States face a particularly high likelihood of reoffending and reconviction, otherwise known as recidivism. Estimates hold that approximately two thirds of individuals released from prison in the United States will recidivate within three years.

America’s recidivism crisis

According to a study on recidivism (Rosenfeld et al 2005), prisoners released in 1994 accounted for over 10% of all arrests for property crime and over 15% of violent crime from 1994 to 1997. This statistic is striking given that the group represented less than 0.5% of the total adult U.S. population.  

A study of parolees in California (Grattet et al. 2008) found that 84% of California state parolees who returned to prison in 2003 and 2004 did so because of another criminal violation rather than a technical parole violation. Clearly, reoffending by parolees is a significant aspect of American crime from both the lens of individual outcomes as well as national crime risk.

Limited reentry employment opportunities

A crucial challenge facing former inmates is that of employment, which informs the social, housing, and financial challenges they may face reentering society. Many employers do not hire convicted felons. Additional impediments to job accessibility felons frequently face is low educational attainment, employment experience, and job skills training.

A Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report from 2003 estimated that about 40% of incarcerated persons in the United States had not earned a high school diploma or GED. A large proportion of parolees are limited to pursuing low-skill employment opportunities. Frequently, these jobs fall among the sectors of construction, food services, manufacturing, retail, waste management, and other service work.

Study: “Good Jobs and Recidivism”

A 2018 study titled “Good Jobs and Recidivism” by Kevin Schnepel published in The Economic Journal observed outcomes for released male inmates from 1993 through 2008 in California, where 3-year recidivism rates match the national average of about two-thirds. The study matched prisoner release and parole outcome data from the National Corrections Reporting Program with labor market observations from the Quarterly Workforce Indicator to determine if employment growth within specific sectors could have an impact on recidivism rates.  

Schnepel’s analysis found when there is increased job demands for low-skill construction and low-skill manufacturing, the recidivism was reduced. They reported a 1.8% decrease in recidivism associated with one extra construction hire per 1000 working-age individuals during the initial quarter of prison release. They also reported a similar 1% decrease in recidivism associated with manufacturing hires.  Figure 1 shows the impact on the California recidivism rate by hires in each sector.

Schnepel’s analysis found that increases in employment in other low skill jobs commonly accessible to parolees in industries such as food services, retail, waste, and other services increased the recidivism rate or had no impact. Figure 1 omits Retail and Other Services because they showed 0 effect.

Low skill jobs within the construction and manufacturing sectors are on average higher paying. Greater earnings appear to be a mechanism that helps to reduce recidivism. Figure 2 shows average low skill monthly earnings during the study period as reported by Quarterly Workforce Indicator.

Offense type and employment sectors affect recidivism rates

Upon more granular inspection involving offense types, job effects on recidivism were stronger for drug offenders, potentially reflecting a preference on the part of employers to hire drug offenders over former inmates imprisoned for property or violent crime. Intuition and prior criminological work suggest that violent crime is less tied to economic motivators than property offenses, but Schnepel’s analysis found statistically significant effects for construction opportunities among property offenders, and similar effects for manufacturing opportunities among violent offenders. Figure 3 shows the impact of industry sector employment on the recidivism rates of drug, property, and violent crime offenders.

The reduction of recidivism rates, particularly in response to manufacturing job opportunities was stronger among first-time offenders as compared to parolees who have already recidivated. Figure 4 shows the industry specific recidivism impact of first-time offenders as compared to repeat offenders.

Job opportunities bear real impact on recidivism

The startling statistics of America’s high recidivism rate, as well as the significant shares of property and violent crime perpetuated by those recently released from the prison system, endorse the analysis and consideration of which kind of job opportunities may curb reoffending and reconviction. Schnepel’s research on which job types impact recidivism demonstrates statistically significant evidence that construction and manufacturing produce good jobs for low skill job seekers, and that these opportunities can bear a real impact on recidivism numbers.

The study further demonstrates that parolees’ likelihoods of recidivism is impacted by the current state of the local job market they are released into. Construction and manufacturing jobs can influence positive impacts on former prisoners who were incarcerated for a variety of crimes — including violent crimes, which criminologists generally find less tied to economic motivations — and reflect a capacity for industry to help curb America’s recidivism crisis.