Priorities, possibilities, and duty of care in the face of new challenges and a rapidly evolving risk landscape amid the conflict in Ukraine
For brands and companies impacted by the conflict in Ukraine, this is an enormously challenging time. Understanding how best to protect your people and your assets and mitigate risk in the face of destabilizing series of events isn’t easy.
What follows is an overview of some of the key pain points and challenges facing many companies, some tips on the most effective ways to manage during a crisis and fulfill your duty of care to employees, and some guidance on how to respond and what to prioritize when faced with events of this magnitude.
Chaos and conflict in Ukraine
For companies with physical or personnel assets in Ukraine, it’s an extremely difficult situation. The top priority for anyone with employees in country is making sure your people are safe. And, unfortunately, with increased danger to civilian infrastructure and the conflict expanding into more densely populated urban areas, that priority is only going to become more urgent for those who have not yet been able to evacuate.
The burning issue here is how long to wait and what locations are safe and can serve as viable evacuation routes. Delays — sometimes days-long — are an enormous logistical and emotional challenge for evacuees. Long lines and cold weather can take a toll. Many international companies have been trying to help their people get to the border by train, by car, and even on foot. Those efforts can be supported by in-house security personnel, but accurate information can be tough to come by. With information changing, in some cases, quite literally minute to minute, actionable real-time intelligence is at a premium. Whatever companies (and their security partners) can do to provide their employees with confirmed quality information is enormously helpful. The conflict is obviously a very dynamic situation, with the landscape evolving constantly. With that in mind, all intelligence needs to be triple checked. There is a great deal of information posted online that can be misleading, whether intentionally or otherwise. The reality is that even professional security personnel will be of limited assistance until an evacuee gets across the border. Companies and their security partners can help secure hotel rooms or housing near the border, and can provide food, water, medical supplies, transportation, and other logistical and financial support.
Foreign nationals in Russia face their own challenges. Most embassies have advised their citizens to leave Russia, but finding a way out of the country can be tricky. For example, at the time of this writing, taking a plane directly from Moscow to Germany is no longer possible, and those attempting to leave may face financial challenges with many forms of electronic payment no longer being accepted in Russia. Another issue for longtime Russian residents (and the companies that employ them) to consider is the fact that because the Russian COVID vaccine has not been approved by the EU, those leaving Russia might be subject to a quarantine period after arriving at their destination.
Risks and ripple effects on business continuity
Once your people are safe, how does a business move forward, accurately assess risk, and even begin to talk about business continuity?
From the societal and economic impact on European countries welcoming refugees to the restriction of travel in and around the region to the financial and operational impact of companies that have assets in or do business with Russia, the effects of the conflict in Ukraine are far-reaching. The direct financial impact for businesses impacted by sanctions and conflict-related disruptions can be dramatic — even catastrophic — but the tangential risks are also a legitimate and growing concern, even for countries that don’t do business in or with Russia and Ukraine. Globally, companies need to be thinking about and planning for the prospect of potential supply chain disruptions, steep energy price rises, and other ripple effects.
In general, decision-makers should be doing the following:
Prioritize
Focus on your specific business and your operational priorities. Fulfill your duty of care to employees first, then address direct infrastructure and financial risks, and then prepare for tangential financial risks and widespread disruptions.
Monitor
Keep an ear to the ground and pay close attention to new developments, both inside and outside Ukraine. Monitor anti-Western and anti-Russian sentiments in the media and online, with the understanding that the negative impact on brands and business from a perception or public sentiment standpoint can be just as significant as direct financial losses.
Partner
Security partners with global information networks, assets on the ground, and established relationships with partners in the region are invaluable during periods like this.
Moving forward despite the unthinkable
Discussions about crisis preparedness and business continuity don’t usually include the prospect of war. But now it’s time to think about the unthinkable and to plan ahead to consider how (and when) to respond if the conflict expands or the consequences become more severe.
Recognize and address specific risks arising from the potential of further sanctions against Russia and the likelihood of more counter-sanctions from Russia and its allies in the short term. Foreign companies and individuals with assets in Russia are expected to be most impacted. Cyberwarfare and the distribution of malware are likely to increase substantially during hostilities.
The war will have a domino effect on several supply chains and will certainly cause intense inflationary pressures: global prices of hydrocarbons, food, and commodities are expected to continue to go up, with more dire effects in developing nations. Governments who subsidize fuel and food will likely increase debt or encounter risks of unrest.
As you work with your security partner to plan and prepare for these impacts, be sure to establish specific metrics and trigger points for implementation. When faced with the inherent uncertainties of war, proactive planning and preparation is the best way to minimize exposure and mitigate risk.
