Retail Theft Crisis: $53B by 2027

Reading Time: 5 minutes

Key Takeaways

• Retail theft losses reached $45B in 2024, projected to hit $53B by 2027, contributing to 650,000 job losses and higher consumer prices nationwide. 
• External theft incidents jumped 19% from 2023 to 2024, with organized retail crime (ORC) increasingly involving coordinated teams and violent confrontations. 
• 64% of retailers report less than half of theft incidents due to lack of law enforcement resources, low felony thresholds, and insufficient evidence. 
• Aggravated assaults during shoplifting have climbed steadily since 2021, forcing 91% of retailers to increase workplace violence training for employees. 
• Cargo theft alone costs the retail industry $7 billion annually, with ORC proceeds linked to terrorism and human trafficking operations. 

Retail theft and organized retail crime (ORC) have been issues of growing concern over the last several years. They impact individual businesses, consumers, and the economy at large, contributing to lost commerce, store closures, job losses, inflated costs, and negative shopping experiences. Consumers face empty shelves, locked display cases, and — increasingly — safety risks as theft incidents turn violent. 

The scope of the problem is staggering. Organized Retail Crime involves coordinated shoplifting operations that feed illicit resale markets, with proceeds linked to terrorism and human trafficking. Cargo theft, a critical dimension of ORC, costs the industry USD 7 billion annually, according to the American Trucking Association. Now, Congress is weighing new legislation to combat these escalating threats. 

While difficult to parse what percentage of retail theft is involved in ORC and how much is independent, more traditional shoplifting — retail theft-associated losses — are high: approximately USD 45 billion in 2024, projected to total USD 53 billion by 2027. These expenses, which are passed along to operating businesses and consumers alike, have led to the loss of 650,000 jobs, according to a December 2025 hearing by the House Judiciary Committee. 

What the Data Reveals: NRF's 2025 Retail Theft Survey

Every year, the National Retail Federation (NRF) surveys the industry to understand the continued threat and risks of retail theft across America. The latest report highlights how thieves are changing tactics, what fraud methodologies are impacting retailers, and where retailers are most vulnerable. Understanding these national trends can help organizations strengthen their defenses and enable law enforcement to coordinate more effective responses. 

The NRF report data comes from senior loss prevention and security executives at 70 retail companies representing 168 brands. Together, these companies generated USD 1.3 trillion in sales during fiscal year 2024 — roughly 25% of all U.S. retail sales. Half operate at least 500 stores, and most employ over 10,000 people. In other words, this survey captures insights from the retailers who see the problem up close. 

Interestingly, the large-scale "smash and grab" events that dominated headlines a few years ago are no longer the top concern. Instead, over half of respondents are more concerned with smaller, coordinated operations: groups of 2-3 people shoplifting in tandem. Half also expressed increased concern about independent shoplifters stealing a large number of items. 

The numbers tell a clear story. Respondents reported increases in various methods of external theft across the board — from cargo and supply chain theft to shoplifting, and from phone scams to e-commerce fraud and return fraud. Overall, external shoplifting and theft incidents jumped 19% from 2023 to 2024. 

Criminals are getting more sophisticated. They're not just stealing products off shelves — they're targeting gift cards, credit card information, and cash through increasingly complex schemes. Phone scams surged, with 62% of respondents reporting an increase. Nearly half saw rises in loyalty program fraud and quick-change scams. 

Most of this crime goes unreported to law enforcement. A striking 64% of retailers say they reported less than half of the theft incidents at their stores. Why? Common reasons include a lack of law enforcement response, dollar amounts that fall below felony threshold levels, and a lack of concrete evidence to provide to law enforcement.  

But coordinated enforcement efforts show what's possible when resources and political will align. Across the country, task forces are cracking down on organized theft rings and recovering massive amounts of stolen goods. According to California’s governor’s office, the fight against ORC has resulted in more than 30,000 arrests, more than 25,000 cases referred for prosecution, and the recovery of almost USD 260 million worth of stolen goods since October 2023. 

The underreporting problem makes it difficult to measure the true scale of retail theft. That's where the FBI's National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) comes in. Now, the national standard for law enforcement crime data in the United States, NIBRS provides a window into trends among reported incidents. The plots below show year-end counts for Larceny/Theft offenses and property offenses at retail store locations — offering at least a partial view of the problem's trajectory. 

The plots above capture the extent to which department stores, in particular, struggle with theft offenses and the sharp increase in these offenses since 2021. The Larceny/Theft numbers are particularly striking given that most of the NRF survey respondents claimed their companies reported less than half of theft offenses. 

Almost half of the respondents said they had seen increases in the frequency of guest-related violence and violence during shoplifting incidents. Retailers who had tracked these incidents saw a 17% increase in threats or acts of violence against employees, while 91% of the respondents said that thefts involving violence or threats of violence have caused them to increase employee training on workplace violence.  

A majority of retailers responding in 2025 said that in-store loss prevention personnel were the only staff authorized to approach or apprehend individuals suspected of shoplifting, up from 35% in 2024. While 43% said that no employee was authorized, 28% of respondents said management could only initiate contact with suspected shoplifters. 

NIBRS also tracks cases where shoplifting escalates into violence. The chart below shows aggravated assaults that occurred during shoplifting incidents — a troubling trend that's climbed steadily since 2021, when the reporting system became the national standard. 

Despite underreporting posing challenges in capturing an accurate scale of retail theft in official reporting, the severe nature of aggravated assault means these numbers are less underreported than others describing theft. 

Turn Insights Into Action with Pinkerton

Retail theft is evolving — your security strategy should too. Pinkerton helps retailers stay ahead of emerging threats with tools and services designed for today's challenges.

Our Pinkerton Crime Index translates national crime trends into neighborhood-level insights, so you can make smarter decisions about store locations and security budgets. Our site assessment and staffing services identify vulnerabilities before they're exploited, strengthening your defenses where it matters most. And when incidents do occur, our investigation, litigation support, and threat management teams help you pursue justice and recover losses. 

Don't wait for the next headline. Partner with Pinkerton to protect your people, your assets, and your reputation.