A Closer Look at the Motor Vehicle Theft Surge

Although aggregate property crime numbers across America have been declining since the early 1990s, recent annual releases of FBI crime data have shown an uptick. One of the key drivers for this change is the sharp increase in motor vehicle theft. In 2023’s official crime data, the incident rate per 100,000 people has risen by about 42% nationwide since 2019. 

Metro areas bore the brunt of these increases. The St. Louis Police reported increases of over 90% from 2021 to 2022, and the Chicago police department reported increases of 214% from 2021 to 2022. 

Crime Trend Analysis 

Several news articles and investigations highlighted two manufacturers, Kia and Hyundai, as being disproportionately the targets of these thefts.  

Chicago’s total 2023 motor vehicle thefts were the highest they have been since the year 2000, with more than 29,000 thefts. According to a local news investigation, half of the automobiles stolen by the end of September 2023 were Hyundai and Kia automobiles. The theft of these two brands alone by the end of September exceeded Chicago’s total motor vehicle thefts for the entire year of 2019. According to data from the Highway Loss Data Institute, theft insurance claims of affected models of Hyundais and Kias went up over 1000% from early 2020 to early 2023. 

The high rate of theft of select models from both manufacturers is a story replicated across many metro areas through 2022 and 2023, including Atlanta, GA; Baltimore, MD; Cleveland, OH; Dayton, OH; Denver, CO; Los Angeles, CA; Minneapolis, MN; Philadelphia, PA; Portland, OR; Seattle, WA; and Washington D.C. 

Models from both manufacturers produced from 2015 to 2021 are susceptible to relatively simple thefts involving a USB cable, and these methods of exploitation have proliferated through social media, particularly on TikTok.

According to an FBI crime data analysis for rising mote vehicle theft rates, the front half of this crime trend, from 2019 to 2021, saw an increase in the proportion of motor vehicle thefts carried out by adult offenders, but in 2022 and 2023, an increasing share of these offenses were committed by juveniles. In 2023, 16.6% of motor vehicle thefts were perpetrated by juveniles. 

Theft Prevention Strategies 

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said that more than 8 million Kia and Hyundai vehicles did not have electronic immobilizers and were therefore susceptible to theft. As of mid-July 2024, the two automakers have stated that 60% of eligible vehicles have received a free software upgrade designed threat to curb theft. Additionally, many local police departments and individual owners have endorsed more traditional, lower-tech auto theft deterrents like steering wheel locks.  

Despite these upgrades, as of late February 2025, 47% of vehicles stolen in Denver so far this year are Kias or Hyundais, and this is a significant decline from 2022 when 60% of all motor vehicles stolen in Denver were Kias or Hyundais.  

The 2024 data available thus far optimistically suggests many metro areas experienced their peak in this latest rash of motor vehicle thefts in 2022 or 2023. Among cities that provide real-time policing data, 2025 shows motor vehicle theft in many metro areas declining or leveling off. As of the end of February 2025, Minneapolis police data shows YTD motor vehicle theft down by approximately 24.2% from last year and down 31.3% from a three-year average. Chicago’s year-end policing data found 2024 motor vehicle thefts down 25% from 2023 but still up 106% from 2021. Denver’s year-end motor vehicle thefts were also down, with 2024 recording a 29% decrease in thefts from 2023, and a 42% decrease from 2022. As of mid-February 2025, St. Louis police data reports YTD motor vehicle theft is down 45% from 2024 and down 57% from 2023.  

The Pinkerton Crime Index collects and analyzes crime data to provide data-driven crime forecasting and risk projections down to the neighborhood level. PCI’s crime risk analysis can help identify locations that pose high risk of auto-vehicle theft, as well as other crime risks to persons and property. This information can provide added clarity when making security and safety decisions.